With the Oscars less than 24 hours away, I figured it was time to throw my hat into the ring and give my predictions on what was going to happen at this year’s awards. This year’s lineup is less than promising, with the highly offensive (not only to transgender people and Mexicans, but to anybody that watched it) Emilia Pérez somehow nabbing 13 nominations, while Luca Guadignino’s masterpiece Challengers went completely snubbed.
In the spirit of positivity, I decided to not only give my predictions for what will win, but also to award my personal favorites from among the nominees. Please enjoy Playback’s own unofficial awards.
Best Picture
Prediction: Emilia Pérez | Personal: Dune: Part Two
It’s no secret that I absolutely adore Dune: Part Two. Everything about it is stellar, from the acting to the score to especially the visuals. Such a rich and beautiful landscape brought to life stunningly. As VANTAGEToday’s personal pick for the #1 movie of the year, I absolutely believe it should win the fabled Best Picture statuette. Unfortunately, that’s not the reality we live in, and on this planet, Emilia Pérez is likely to take home the Oscar. Despite having abysmal acting, directing, writing, singing, and editing, Emilia Pérez absolutely dominated this year, becoming tied with Chicago for the second-most nominated musical of all time (behind La La Land). There have been countless articles and videos dissecting Emilia Pérez amazingly, so the most I can say is: watch Dune: Part Two instead.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | Personal: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
If Emilia Pérez hadn’t come out, I would’ve thought Conclave would sweep through this year. While I found it boring and the plot to be pretty trite, I can’t deny Ralph Fiennes monumental performance as Cardinal Lawrence. Fiennes’s beautiful but subdued acting was easily the best part of the movie, and I think his win would be very justified. If it were up to me, however, Sebastian Stan would be the winner. The Apprentice was an incredibly underrated movie, and Stan’s transition from spoiled brat into megalomaniac was terrifying to witness. Easily some of the best acting of the entire year, but there really isn’t a bad performance on the whole list.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction: Mikey Madison (Anora) | Personal: Demi Moore (The Substance)
For how disappointing most of the nominations were, the leading actor and actress categories were filled with excellence (Karla Sofía Gascón excluded), and Mikey Madison is probable to rise to the top. In a similar vein to Ralph Fiennes, I would not have any problem with seeing her win the statuette for her outstanding acting. And though I don’t think she will, I would be even happier watching Demi Moore up on that stage. The Substance was an absolutely insane movie, and Moore’s Elisabeth Sparkle elevated it to a whole other level. In addition to her pure skill, I just think it would be genuinely hilarious to call a movie as wild and inventive as The Substance an Oscar winner. Either way, no bad choice here.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction and Personal: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
In my review for A Real Pain, I praised Kieran Culkin for multiple paragraphs on his magnificent performance. Every word he says is laced with such sadness and warmth, dragging you into his broken family and mind with every sentence. Honestly, Culkin probably has the best performance of the entire year, and luckily I believe the Academy is going to recognize him for it. This is the only category where what I think will happen and what I want to happen align perfectly, and I’d be thrilled to finally call him “Oscar winner Kieran Culkin.”
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) | Personal: Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Unlike the other three acting categories, the Supporting Actress lineup isn’t stellar, to say the least. The performances range from fine to decent (mostly), and nobody embodies that more this year than Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez. I love Saldaña in other movies (her performance as Gamora is excellent), and she easily has the best acting in Emilia Pérez, but I don’t think she should have even made the nomination list. While she probably will take home the gold, I would definitely elect Ariana Grande to go up on that stage. I didn’t really care for Wicked as a whole, but Ariana Grande was one of my favorite parts of the movie by far. She was hilarious, and both hateable and loveable at the same time. The transition from Galinda to Glinda made me laugh out loud, and her acting stole the show and should definitely steal the award.
Best Directing
Prediction: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) | Personal: Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
I don’t want to rant about Emilia Pérez any more. Jacques Audiard’s directing isn’t a point in Emilia Pérez’s favor, and his highly offensive remarks about Mexico, the Spanish language, and the people he’s “representing” certainly doesn’t help the film. This isn’t a new idea, and Mexicans and transgender people speak on the misrepresentation far better than I could. What I will speak on is Coralie Fargeat’s masterpiece. I love The Substance, and the directing is one of its best features. The movie specializes in discomfort, and the close-up shots and fast-paced direction turns stomachs and makes viewers viscerally feel the ideas the movie is selling. Fargeat’s third feature is terrific, and unfortunately I don’t think the Academy will give it the love it deserves.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Prediction: Emilia Pérez | Personal: A Complete Unknown
There’s nothing more I can say about Emilia Pérez and nothing I can say in general about Écoute (the book it’s based on), but I will talk about James Mangold’s excellent adaptation of Elijah Wald’s story Dylan Goes Electric! A Complete Unknown’s screenplay isn’t perfect, but I really enjoyed it. It’s fairly slow and self-contained. It follows Dylan’s slow increase in talent and prestige, and plays the dynamics between the people he meets very naturally. Expanding on Wald’s book that just focused on the concert into a rich portrait of his rise to fame, Mangold’s script is dynamic and poetic, just like Dylan’s music.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Prediction: Anora | Personal: A Real Pain
In a similar vein to Mikey Madison’s performance, I have zero issues with Anora taking home the Oscar. Charming, fun, and madcap, Sean Baker’s surprise fan-favorite is loved by viewers everywhere. But again, I absolutely think A Real Pain deserves the win handily. The dialogue and character development is nearly perfect, and every line meant to be funny made me laugh endlessly. Obviously Culkin’s Benji was the best written character (what else is new), but Jesse Eisenberg’s David was an outstanding neurotic foil to the carefree Benji. One of the best scripts of the decade so far, maybe even THE best, and definitely my pick for the award.
Remember to tune in to the Oscars on March 2nd at 4:00pm PST, and make sure to check out all of the nominees (well, most of them) and give them the love they deserve.
