With Democrats holding supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature, and California supplying a reliable 54 electoral votes to Democratic presidential candidates, the state remains the country’s most prominent blue stronghold. Yet in a crowded gubernatorial field with no clear front-runner, Republicans may be able to exploit California’s top-two primary system, in which the two highest vote-getters advance to November regardless of party. The question is whether Democrats will let them.
The race to succeed Gavin Newsom grew more chaotic after former front-runner Eric Swalwell withdrew in early April amid a host of sexual misconduct allegations, including a rape allegation from a former staffer. Swalwell, who also resigned from the House after facing an expulsion vote, had only recently taken the lead in polling. His absence was immediately felt. Last week, state controller Betty Yee also dropped out, citing low voter support, leaving the remaining field scrambling for advantage. The Democratic candidates in the race include billionaire Tom Steyer, former state attorney general Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. The four have been deadlocked since Swalwell’s exit, but Becerra has recently surged as establishment support once aligned with Swalwell shifted his way, putting him in a close fight with Steyer, whom Yee endorsed after dropping out.
Still, Democrats are not exactly in command.
Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, has been leading in the polls since gaining Donald Trump’s endorsement earlier this month. Hilton, a British expatriate who served as a director of strategy for Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron before moving to the U.S. and pivoting sharply rightward, was a key proponent of baseless conspiracy theories that COVID-19 was manufactured in a lab by Anthony Fauci and his associates. He also pushed false claims that the 2020 election was rigged. Appearing in several polls in second is Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff who received national attention after refusing to enforce COVID-19 measures. Though most Californians vote Democratic in general elections, the party’s fractured race, with a majority of voters still undecided, could leave Hilton and Bianco as the two candidates to advance to November, effectively guaranteeing the Republican Party would win the governorship for the first time in over 15 years.
This reflects a broader Democratic malaise. The party has struggled to excite voters, fueling populist revolts inside and outside its ranks. The floundering of the Biden administration in popular approval, the losses in both 2016 and 2024, and the overall seeming gutlessness of the party to stand up to Trump’s authoritarian interpretation of the rule of law have made one of the republic’s two biggest political institutions into a national kind of doormat. It’s a stark contrast from the days of Barack Obama, who won decisive elections in 2008 and 2012 and whose wild popularity seemed to sway the country strikingly toward his liberal goals.
Yet careless ambition, it seems, has blinded his successors.
Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and others stayed in the national spotlight long after voters had begun to tire of them, creating openings for the MAGA movement in Congress, the courts, and the presidency. Biden’s decision to seek a second term despite his age and deep unpopularity became a central factor in Donald Trump’s return to the White House, especially after his withdrawal left Vice President Kamala Harris only 107 days to establish herself as a political force separate from her boss. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has also faced growing ire from progressive Democrats, who argue his old-school negotiating style is ill-suited to the current moment.
As the 2026 midterms approach, Trump’s grip on Republican Party leadership remains strong, but his standing with the broader public appears weaker than at any point since he entered national politics in 2015. The unpopularity of the Iran war, the continuing scandal of the Epstein files, and a widely scorned feud with the pope have sent his approval ratings as low as 33 percent, the worst of any president since modern approval polling began. Polls show Democrats have a serious opportunity to take both houses of Congress and state and local offices across the country. Their main obstacle is familiar: themselves.
